Short-term estimation of traffic accidents in Ecuador risks due to exceeding speed limits by means of a temporal mathematical model
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Abstract
Around 1.3 million people die on the different roads of the world, one of the main reasons for death is traffic accidents. With the additive temporal mathematical model, the estimation of future data was found, the variable is the number of traffic accidents in Ecuador due to driving vehicles exceeding the maximum speed limits, according to the model, this calculation was performed in the short term , in a time interval of 2 years, 2020 and 2021. The historical statistical database of the National Traffic Agency of Ecuador (ANT) was accessed from 2010 to 2019, once these data were classified according to the claims caused by speeding by year and month, we proceeded to calculate one of the components of the mathematical model called seasonality 〖(S〗 _t) a value for each month of the year, then the second component of the model was established which is the trend (T) was used the linear regression procedure and it was obtained that the value of T = 232.8 + 0.98 * t where the value of (t) is the time interval that we want to find the estimate, the last component that intervenes in the model is the noise value (R) the way to find it was to clear the noise 〖R = V_r-T-S_t from the additive temporal model like the other components of real value (V_r) trend (T) and seasonality 〖(S〗 _t) are already known, this series of irregular fluctuations was found, finally the model for the estimation was: Estimated value = Base value + Trend + Seasonality. It can be predicted that for the year 2021 in the month of December it will decrease to 413 traffic accidents and for the year 2020 401 traffic accidents are expected, a value affected by the global health crisis since March 2020.
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