Development of a prototype for the prediction of new cases of covid-19 in ecuador through the use of artificial intelligence.

Abstract

Introduction. Cases of coronavirus (Covid-19) around the world are increasing. The uncertainty of a figure close to reality generates anguish in the population. Objective. Propose the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to determine the increase in Covis-19 cases in Ecuador, applying this model will provide approximate information on coronavirus cases. Helping to keep the entire population informed about the spread of this virus. Methodology. The design of this research was quantitative, the population that was taken was 17,268,000 and the sample was the data of the infections of Covid-19 from the month of April to the month of December of the year 2020. For this, it was taken as data source the information published daily on the official website of the National Risk and Emergency Management Service. Using predictive models as support, these data were stored in a data set, to later be consolidated and later entered into an algorithm, which using time series will make predictions based on historical data using the weka software. The following article presents a model capable of predicting the close-to-reality number of coronavirus cases, achieving 80% effectiveness. So it can be stated that this model is very useful for making predictions within a given period. Results. After applying the prediction model, the most frequent results are the increases in Covid-19 infections with an increase of (1%) for each day that has elapsed. Conclution. It was concluded that the cases will continue to increase over time since the majority of the population does not take the respective precautions and disrespects social distancing.